Of course, one of the movies I'm the most excited about this year is seeing Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman, and Sasha Baron Cohen sing in Sweeney Todd. I'm even more excited about that than I am seeing Michelle Pfeiffer sing in Hairspray or Julie Taymor's totally trippy Beatles musical, Across the Universe. I mean, come on this has to be a good year for movies, right/ Because there's TWO Soderbergh pictures coming out. (Ocean's Thirteen and Che.
Nevertheless, Dave Poland is already predicting that Depp will win the Oscar next year for his swinging, ravenous barber! Here's his blurb: I really don't want to get into next year's awards yet. (This has not stopped me from talking to some reporters about it.) At some point, one has to stop complaining and just hold back.
Also, next year is no clear read. Movies like Che' (Episode One) could arrive... or not. Movies like Sweeney Todd could deliver... or not. Strong foreign directors like Suzanne Bier could become strong US-studio film directors... or not. And veterans like Mike Nichols could be unstoppable... or not.
So...
Just this.
I believe now that Johnny Depp is a 95% bet to be nominated for Best Actor as the title character in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street in a very, very crowded field of 2007 male movie performances… and an 80% chance to win.
Word from the set about his performance - from multiple sources - is excellent. He was nominated in the last two years before missing this year with the Pirates sequel. But the Pirates threequel is actually more a help than a hindrance. Huge box office power followed by an unexpected (though people have come to expect the unexpected from Depp) performance as the lead of a Grand Guignol opera… manna from heaven to Academy voters who are more than ready to deliver this guy an Oscar.
Leo will get one eventually for the right role. Mark Wahlberg is probably the next guy to become an “actor’s favorite” regular in races, even for less than Oscar-y roles. Ryan Gosling can probably have whatever he wants to have in this regard.
But Depp is like an aesthetic zit that actors are drooling to pop. To paraphrase what someone said, actors want to be him and actresses want to be with him, on screen and off. We’re a long, long way from The Ninth Gate and The Astronaut’s Wife.
The film can miss and Depp will still be nominated if he is any good at all. And it seems unlikely that he will be anything less than fantastic… which makes him the one clear frontrunner for 2007/8’s award season.
14% of the 20% of not winning is that there will be a film that comes along – none is clearly in sight right now – that will be overwhelming, have an overwhelming lead male performance, and will become unstoppable, turning Depp’s work into a “stunt” that can be overlooked in the finals. 1% is that Depp just isn’t that good. And 5% is just plain “other.”
Edie Murphy as James “Thunder” Early did stink of Oscar. And so does Depp as Sweeney Todd. The biggest question is whether he could sing the role. But everyone from Sondheim, who auditioned him, to everyone who I know of who has heard him sing this role, is “thumbs up.”
The reasons Depp is far more of a probable to win than Murphy are, a) it will be his third nomination, b) he is seen as an artist by almost everyone, c) he doesn’t carry any of Murphy’s baggage of being black, a comedian, 99.9% unavailable (Depp is at about 85%, though he is good at hiding in Europe and not making the press hate him for being unavailable), or a wearer of fat suits, and d) he is the lead, not a supporting actor, where quirky performances are more common.
And so, that is my one deeply believed projection into next year’s race. The rest, I would truly be guessing… even more than in year’s past. Even from this distance, you can see that the studios are not even making the big, obvious Oscar films for this fall. Perhaps the surprise appearance of one will be, like The Departed, a feature of next year’s race. Maybe not.
But for now, time to shut down my Oscar brain for a while. Time to consider what to do next season and not just how quickly it can be done.
--Discovering Jon McLaughlin at a show at the Troubadour. --Pulling my first all-nighter to get a script done. --Trying Red Bull for the first time and not totally freaking out. (I went with the sugar free kind, so maybe that's why I wasn't bouncing off the walls.) --The Dreamgirls number at the Oscars. --Allen Arkin winning Best Supporting Actor. (It really should've been Jackie Earl Haley or Mark Whalberg, but it was nice to see a little bit of something exciting. Otherwise, the Oscars, were--eh, but wow, didn't Emily Blunt look lovely?) --Watching this really cool BBC mini-series called The Line of Beauty. --Reading a friend's script. Hopefully, it'll get made, because I really enjoyed it.
I love discovering new talent. It's not like I'm a talent manager finding people to sign or cast, but one of the things I really enjoy is finding out about people before they "make it big." I'll always be enormous fans of Michael C. Hall, Patrick Wilson, and John Mayer for that reason. Last night, I went to see Matt Wertz in concert at the Troubadour and found a new artist to add to my recently discovered talent list:
He was the opening act last night, performing a four song set. And I was blown away by every second of his performance. His talent, his songwriting ability, and his coolness level were off the chart. I was completely impressed.
His first album, "Indiana", is set to drop May 15th. It's a definite piece to pick up. Or at least I am going to.
In celebration of the upcoming Oscars®, AMC Theatres will host an “AMC Best Picture Showcase” event Saturday, Feb. 24, at 78 select AMC theatres nationwide* (check local listings for availability and show times). The day-long event will showcase the five films nominated by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences for “Best Picture.” Guests are invited to attend the event through an exclusive offer of an AMC Best Picture Showcase All-Day Pass, which allows moviegoers to see all five films for one ticket, priced at $30. AMC Best Picture Showcase All-Day Pass holders will also receive a large popcorn and a large drink, with unlimited free refills on both concession items for the entire day. The five films, “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Letters from Iwo Jima,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen,” will play back-to-back throughout the day in one dedicated auditorium. Guests who purchase an All-Day Pass will also receive a keepsake lanyard with a hanging collectible pass, which features the five nominated films and allows guests to come and go as they please. The AMC Best Picture Showcase is valued at more than $55. Guests can find a theatre in their area hosting the AMC Best Picture Showcase by visiting www.amctheatres.com. AMC Best Picture Showcase advance ticket sales began earlier this month, on a first-come, first-served basis online at amctheatres.com or by visiting the box office or Guest Services area at any theatre hosting the event. AMC Best Picture Showcase schedule (all times local; schedule is the same nationwide): “Babel” 11:00 a.m. “The Queen” 1:45 p.m. “The Departed” 3:45 p.m. “Letters From Iwo Jima” 7:00 p.m. “Little Miss Sunshine” 9:45 p.m.
If tonight's Veronica Mars is as funny as last week's, then this will be the funniest hour on television this week. Last week's first part of a two part story, was possibly the most hilarious episode the show has ever done. I don't think I'll ever be able to listen to Nick Lachey and "What's Left of Me" ever again without falling into the floor in hysterics.
And if that weren't good enough, then we got an amazing episode of Friday Night LightsWednesday night. I tried twice to blog about how brilliant it was, but Blogger kept shutting down on me. So I'll just have to say it was brilliant and the show deserves an Emmy and Humanitas Prize just for that episode alone.
Saturday night, my roommate and I were supposed to host a scavenger hunt, but NOBODY CAME, so we watched Fight Club instead. I forgot just how ridiculously amazing that movie is. I think it's now more brilliant than when I wrote about it in grad school. And can you believe that thing is almost ten years old?!! WOW!
And it's good that I got to watch Fight Club because none of the other moves I rented this weekend were worth spit. Sigh.
Not that I'm in favor of censorship or anything like that, but I'm aggravated and tired of a culture where it is socially unacceptable to talk about sex, but it's okay to blow 20 people's brain out. Why we are so afraid of sex and simultaneously embrace violence is beyond me. Yes, I understand it is at the core of our culture. The nation was settled by Puritans who believed in pious living, but who had to struggle to survive. That survival included hunting, gathering, killing, etc.
But come on! It's been 300-400 years. Don't you think we could move on and progress a little bit? Violence does as much damage to an individual as overexposure to sexualized images. In fact, it might do more to young children because they aren't as hypersexualized as they might be hyperactive. Violence comes out of activity. (Sure, so can sex, but at least a five year old is biologically incapable of engaging in the activity, though he can kill a pet or something if he/she so desires.)
I was just thinking last night that it's remarkable to think that 10-15 years ago, after NYPD Blue, partial nudity and language were all the rage on prime-time television. Now, I can't think of a naked butt I've seen all year during prime time. In fact, I haven't really even seen a lot of sex. Sure, part of that is because all the nudity and sex has migrated to FX with Dirt and Nip/Tuck. Nevertheless, things have been dialed back on primetime in terms of sex. However, violence is still out of control. I don't know what I think of the way the FCC has cracked down on television content, but I at least applaud them for finally desiring to exercise their authority with some consistency.
Somebody recently got onto me for not having posted thoughts on several movies recently, so I thought I'd do one massive blogfest on things worth missing or watching--particularly when it comes to the Oscar race.
Half Nelson--Watched this one last night and Ryan Gosling definitely deserved his nomination. Maybe even the award. ShareekaEppsshould've also been nominated for supporting actress in this fascinating little movie about a middle school history teacher with a drug problem who's life becomes linked to a student who discovers his secret. This is the kind of Indie film that doesn't get made much anymore in lieu of trite movies like Little Miss Sunshine. It's fresh out on video. Be sure and check it out.
The Departed--This is also fresh out on video. And it just works. Scorsese works it. DiCaprio works it (and should have been nominated for this instead of the piece of drekBlood Diamond). Damon is great. Wahlberg is a revelation--and definitely worth of his nod. It's violent, but it's enthralling, fascinating, and a must-see.
Children of Men--It's worth seeing for the cinematography alone. (Though, there's a great gag dealing with footwear that's a hoot too.) This is a complex, fascinating movie that seems a lot like Lost. It throws out some fascinating things and doesn't really feel the need to answer all the questions it raises. I know there are people who won't like that, but so be it. This film tries to go some place that sci-fi doesn't frequently go. And the material's so rich--finding great ways to deal with the idea of having a society without children from the decrepit schools to people who don't know what pregnancy looks like. By the time the ending comes around, it feels like one massive journey in redemption.
The Queen--Just a solid little movie with a great performance by Mirren and an eye-opening turn from Michael Sheen as Tony Blair. (He should've been nominated too.) It's a slice of life movie that takes a look at something that I had no interest in going into the movie and by the time I came out, I was enthralled. That's some good storytelling.
Babel--Eh, it's not nearly as good as AmoresPerros, but way better than 21 Grams. And I don't think I'll ever be able to look at Cate Blanchett the same after watching her urinate like that again.
Notes on a Scandal--Speaking of Blanchett, this film is a hoot! In the best way. The novel it's based on is written by the daughter of the screenwriter of What Ever Happened to Baby Jane and it shows. This is the best bitchy-over-the-top thriller I've seen in years. I loved every second of this thing. It doesn't pretend to be anything it's not. Just a short, emotionally and sexually charged dame fest that turns into a throw down like you've never seen. Judi Dench is at her best here, matched by Blanchett and in small roles, Bill Nigh and newcomer Andrew Simpson. I can't wait for this one to come on video to add it to my collection.
Pan's Labyrinth--A beautifully dark fairy tale that mixes genres better than you can possibly imagine. I know several unimaginative writers who think that you can't mix genres. Well, this movie proves that you can mix a war film with a fairy tale and throw some horror in because at the end of the day, all that matters is solid structure and compelling characters. I was hooked within the first ten minutes and I didn't want this to end. Beautiful film that should've been nominated for Best Picture.
Dreamgirls--better than Chicago, but still nowhere near as brilliant as Moulin Rouge. Part of it was Jamie Foxx's fault. Maybe there should be a moratorium on musical unless BazLuhrman do them. (Though the trailer for Across the Universe makes me think that Julie Taymor gets it). Hudson's great. Murphy's overpraised, Beyonce'sunderpraised. It's fun. Not revolutionary. Still, one of the better things to come out last year.
Letters From IwoJima--eh, I've seen it. Without the subtitles in Japanese. It's a good movie, but seriously, it didn't feel that different from every other World War II movie to come since Saving Private Ryan.
If you don't know, Friday Night Lights is now available for download on ITunes. You can--now should--no, must--download the pilot and watch it for free.
This has been a community service announcement by those people who know good TV when they see it.
So I officially changed my blog over to do something with a Gmail account. I really don't know what any of it means, other than the fact that my blog was inaccessible for a couple of days. And the really crappy part was that yetserday, I was dying to blog about something, though I have no idea what it was. (I'd guess it was probably something about Giuliani moving closer to a candidacy and the absolute fear that strikes in my heart. YIKES!)
The other weird thing is there's a couple of things going on in my life now that I'm interested in sharing, but I can't blog about because somebody's patrolling the blogosphere looking for blogs on that particular subject to stay aware. Sheesh!
So on a different note, I had a good lunch with someone from Act One today. He's another aspiring TV writer and learned many things that I would NEVER have expected, but it was fun and I'm definitely glad that I got to.
And no, I don't want to talk about the mess that 24 devolved into last night. For a while, I thought I might have been watching What About Brian? it became such a mess. (But let's give Brian a "yea!" for having the good sense of casting Tom Parker as the "Manny." He was great on Everwood and he's on my short list of "actors I'd like to watch on a weekly basis" list. Maybe I'll just have to write something for him.)
Here's an interesting article about one of the more below-the-radar characters to pop up in a hit this season. The article talks about Justin, Betty's twelve year old nephew, on Ugly Betty. There's no doubt that the kid's flamboyant and an aspiring fashionista, but does that mean he's gay? According to the creators and showrunners, he's too young to even think about that. That--is really exciting to hear. In an era where EVERYTHING has become hypersexualized, it's encouraging to realize that there are people who recognize that it's impossible to know ANYTHING about sexuality at that age.
I do know that there are several people who are worried about this being "television's first gay kid." Actually, if you'll go back and look at Oliver Beene, you'll discover that nomiker's already been taken. Second, if you look at the way that Betty introduces stereotypical characters and begins undercutting what you think about them, you may discover that Justin will turn out completely different from what you expect. I'm not arguing that he'll hang out with Saracen and Riggins over on Friday Night Lights, but a few years into the show, he may look completely different from how he does now.
